08:40 To start it more the beginning let me ask you about your thoughts on the coronavirus itself which were you leaning on the questions of where to get started is an emerging new virus really why this is all happening are even concerned with getting sick these sorts of things. If you're asking if it's a bioweapon, it isn't. Bioweapons have a kill rate of 60%. This is not a bioweapon right? That said basically It is an artifact of testing, which doesn't mean it's not real. Okay? So there's a bunch of stuff about virology where anyone who has like a flu or respiratory infection between 5 and 15% are caused by coronaviruses so you actually can accidentally invent this if you keep testing for people right
09:28 And that's sort of the challenge. And particularly, and I know you read John Rappaport stuff too and he has been playing a blinder with this particular situation we're in. Wuhan is one of the most polluted cities on earth and all these people in their 80s who have been smoking for literally 70 years in one of the most polluted cities on earth come down with pneumonia in pneumonia season and then they test them. And so between 5% and 15% of them are going to have coronaviruses in them, because that's one family of viruses that do things like this. So you can accidentally invent this right? I think that's kind of what i mean about when you talk about virology and virus theories there's challenges with well
10:10 What is a coronavirus and then it's how do we measure them? And and how do we declare whether there is one in there, and you can't if you look at the way they're doing It. It's garbage right so they found some RNA molecules which can come from anywhere and are associated with inflammation anyway and Declare that it's a novel corona virus But we've been sharing this Greg like false positive rates among asymptomatic people are 80% Like this is not um This isn't a coherent way if this is a bio weapon it would kill more people and be easier to track this is a big chunk of it is the model we have to understand viruses is it's wrong because its materialism but more importantly unreliable you're only ever going to get
10:55 you're only ever going to get kind of like weird, guesstimate attempts that continually have to be revised. So in that sense it's an artifact about testing most importantly as to whether or not it exists or not, as a separate thing from a severe flu And I don't everyone's saying, Oh stop equating it to the flu. I'm like, oh do you want better? Actually, I think it's less damaging than the flu this idea that we should I can compare anything to anything. I can compare this to AIDS. I can compare it to Mickey Mouse. This idea You shouldn't compare it to flu and Mike really do you want let's play data shall we let's Let's go with this and step one is to kind of take a deep fucking breath
11:36 and go, okay well how do we know what we know? And as soon as you get to there you realize it's garbage before you even throw in some of the stuff like the clearly faked things coming out of Italy. From step one we actually need to know well what the F is virology and how are we understanding how many cases we have? I'll give you another bit, the data thing that is killing me right 99% of people who've died in Italy have pre-existing conditions. But when you're looking, and this is happening at the moment, the total case count is now bigger outside China than inside China. That's crap! That is an accumulation of every single case for a outbreak that has been going on for four months. It lasts for five weeks so you can't actually just count every single one and go oh there are more cases outside of China than there are now but
12:23 Okay, divide it by five weeks then. That's an aggregate of numbers based over four months and out of a test that is unreliable So this thing from the very beginning is a mess And I'm not sure how much of that...I'm gonna go with 30-70% is a deliberate mess versus a side effect of the dysfunctional worldview that's kind of like caused different governments and so on to panic. I think there is an op here quite clearly, and it said technocratic play in particular focused on Europe but i don't think that requires the coordination across the entire planet that is- It's a very reasonable pushback on okay if it's an op are you telling me Iranian prison guards uh coordinating with President Xi? And no I'm not actually!
13:09 the way we have our, um... The way the world agrees that viruses exist means that you actually only need to kind of do a little bit of a kick and the whole thing tumbles into this panic reaction. And so that's kinda where I wanted to say bubble one, bubble first is virology and testing And then I want to look at the actual data that's showing up out of this unreliable system. And then after that, we can do as Chris would say, Cui Bono like who where who and where is winning out of this? And who, as a result might be might we finger for the person who caused it versus he was using this
13:46 as an opportunity to push their own kind of agendas. So those are the kinds of bubbles and if we don't sort of separate them out, we do end up with a lot of the low quality discussion that has been going on about China's lying about the numbers and Trump is lying about how bad it is and this is a bio weapon and blah blah blah blah blah okay everyone calm down you're let's, how are they lying about the numbers? Let's actually look at how we create these numbers and then move it from there. And I think that is where we need to That is the, to me the most rational way to not just trying to get a head around what is in fact going on but in a way that it can provide what Katherine Fitz would call actionable intelligence because we people listening to this are doing two things. They want to know what the hell is going on but they also wanna know what the hell is going on from a personal threat assessment perspective? What should they be scared of and in what way